Airline On-Time Statistics
from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Pick your origin and destination on some other airline ticket site, then go to http://www.bts.gov/programs/airline_information/airline_ontime_statistics/ and choose "Origin and Destination Airport" and pick the flight that has the best chance of getting there.
Most flights on different carriers are the same price, why not pick the one with the best odds?
Basil White: On Your Side.