basilwhite (basilwhite) wrote,

Vegas books Obama 5 to 2 - Basil White

Vegas books Obama 5 to 2 - Basil White
I used to speculate about who would win elections, then I remembered that Vegas
hires professionals who put their money where their mouth is.
...Based on my public-school math gives Obama a little better than 5 to 3 odds
overall.  If you bet for Obama, the payout is only 4 to 3.  McCain victory pays
3 to 1. 
I don't gamble and don't give gambling advice.  I merely observe that I
believe the polls that measure how people will vote, VERSUS the gambling odds
that measure how people think their neighbors will vote suggests there are a lot
of Obama-betting-McCain voters. 
So what? So a high-Obama sports book for a race with a barely-Obama advantage
in the polls suggests that there's a lot of McCain voters who think
Obama's going to win and virtually no Obama voters who think McCain's
going to win. 
Which means this election is no longer about changing people's minds about
who to vote for.  This election is now about changing people's minds about
whether to vote or not.
The Obama camp has figured this out, because they staffed the Virginia stops at
the DC subway every day, and not once did I notice any attempt to sell people on
Barack Obama.  All they did was help people register to vote.  I assume the
McCain camp understands the contest has shifted from the ideological to the
Today (Oct. 6) is the drop-dead date to register to vote in Virginia.  I
predict a shift of effort to: coordinating bus pickups and drop offs for voters;
chartering buses on election day to drive around as well as to prevent the other
side from chartering them; psychological manipulation to scare people away from
the polls; records tampering to keep new voter registrants off the registration
lists at the polls; cold-calling voters with the message that "people who
have been convicted of a crime can be ineligible to vote and imprisoned for
voter fraud"; accusations of all of the above; and retorts that accusing a
party of the above acts is in and of itself a dirty trick.
Don't believe me? Put your money down.

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